NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.

 

The Great Inflation Conference

 

Michael Bordo and Athanasios Orphanides, Organizers

 

September 25-27, 2008

 

Woodstock Inn & Resort

Fourteen The Green

Woodstock, Vermont

 

PROGRAM

 

Thursday, September 25:

 

6:30 pm†††††††††††† Panel Session I:Practical Experiences in Reducing Inflation:

A View from the Trenches

 

Chairman:Martin Feldstein, Harvard University and NBER

 

Panelists:John Crow, Former Governor, Bank of CanadaPaper

†††††††††††††††† †††††† Don Brash, Former Governor, Reserve Bank of New ZealandPaper

†††††††††††††††† †††††† Jacob Frenkel, Former Governor, Bank of Israel

 

7:30 pm†††††††††††† Adjourn

 

7:45 pm†††††††††††† Reception and Dinner

 

Friday, September 26:

 

8:00 am†††††††††††† Continental Breakfast

 

Session 1:Milton Friedman Revisited

 

Chairman:Michael Bordo, Rutgers University and NBER

 

8:30 am†††††††††††† William Poole, Robert Rasche and

David Wheelock, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

The Great Inflation: Did The Shadow Know Better?

 

Discussant:Christina Romer, UC, Berkeley and NBER

 

9:30 am†††††††††††† Andreas Beyer and Otmar Issing, European Central Bank

Vitor Gaspar, Bureau of European Policy Advisers

Christina Gerberding, Deutsche Bundesbank

Opting Out of the Great Inflation:

German Monetary Policy after the Break Down of Bretton Woods

 

Discussant:Benjamin Friedman, Harvard University and NBER

 

10:30 am†††††††††† Coffee Break

 

Session 2:Non Monetary Elements

 

Chairman:Athanasios Orphanides, Central Bank of Cyprus

 

10:45 am†††††††††† Alan Blinder, Princeton University and NBER

Jeremy Rudd, Federal Reserve Board

The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited

 

Discussant:Olivier Blanchard, MIT and NBER

 

11:45 am†††††††††† Christopher Sims, Princeton University and NBER

Stepping on a Rake:The Role of Fiscal Policy in the Inflation of the 1970ís

 

Discussant:Michael Woodford, Columbia University and NBER

 

12:45 pm†††††††††† Lunch

 

Session 3:Time Inconsistency and Central Bank Independence

 

Chairman:David Blanchflower, Dartmouth College and NBER††

 

2:00 pm†††††††††††† Alex Cukierman, Tel Aviv University

Misperceptions about the Frequency of Price Adjustments and Asymmetric Fedís Preferences Ė

An Assessment of their Impact on Inflation and Monetary Policy Under Burns and Miller

 

Discussant:Gregory Hess, Claremont McKenna College

 

3:00 pm†††††††††††† Takatoshi Ito, University of Tokyo and NBER

Great Inflation and Central Bank Independence in Japan

 

Discussant:Frederic Mishkin, Columbia University and NBER

 

4:00 pm†††††††††††† Coffee Break

 

Session 4:The Role of a Nominal Anchor

 

Chairman:David Wheelock, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

 

4:15 pm†††††††††††† Marvin Goodfriend, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER

Robert King, Boston University and NBER

The Great Inflation Drift

 

Discussant:Lars Svensson, Sveriges Riksbank and NBER

 

5:15 pm†††††††††††† Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board

John Taylor, Stanford University and NBER

Falling Behind the Curve:A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation

 

Discussant:Bennett McCallum, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER

 

6:15 pm†††††††††††† Adjourn

 

7:30 pm†††††††††††† Reception and Dinner†††

 

Saturday, September 27:

 

7:45 am†††††††††††† Continental Breakfast

 

Session 5:International Perspectives

 

Chairman:Harold James, Princeton University

 

8:15 am†††††††††††† Riccardo DiCecio and

Edward Nelson, Federal Reserve Bank ofSt.Louis

The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom:

Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes

 

Discussant:Matthew Shapiro, University of Michigan and NBER

 

9:15 am†††††††††††† Michael Bordo, Rutgers University and NBER

Barry Eichengreen, UC, Berkeley and NBER

Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation

 

Discussant:Allan Meltzer, Carnegie Mellon University

 

10:15 am†††††††††† Coffee Break

 

Session 6:Learning Expectations and Policy Mistakes

 

Chairman:Douglas Irwin, Dartmouth College and NBER††

 

10:30 am†††††††††† Athanasios Orphanides, Central Bank of Cyprus

John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

 

Discussant:Seppo Honkapohja, Bank of Finland

 

11:30 am†††††††††† Coffee Break

 

11:45 am ††††††††† Panel Session II:Lessons from History

 

Chairman:Allan Meltzer, Carnegie Mellon University

 

Panelists:Harold James, Princeton University

Donald Kohn, Federal Reserve Board

†††††† †††††††††††††††† Lucas Papademos, European Central Bank

Anna Schwartz, NBER

†††††††††††

1:00 pm†††††††††††† Lunch and Adjourn

 

2:30 pm†††††††††††† Optional Leaf Peeping

 

 

 

 

9/22/08