The Great Inflation Conference


Michael Bordo and Athanasios Orphanides, Organizers


September 25-27, 2008


Woodstock Inn & Resort

Fourteen The Green

Woodstock, Vermont




Thursday, September 25:


6:30 pm†††††††††††† Panel Session I:Practical Experiences in Reducing Inflation:

A View from the Trenches


Chairman:Martin Feldstein, Harvard University and NBER


Panelists:John Crow, Former Governor, Bank of CanadaPaper

†††††††††††††††† †††††† Don Brash, Former Governor, Reserve Bank of New ZealandPaper

†††††††††††††††† †††††† Jacob Frenkel, Former Governor, Bank of Israel


7:30 pm†††††††††††† Adjourn


7:45 pm†††††††††††† Reception and Dinner


Friday, September 26:


8:00 am†††††††††††† Continental Breakfast


Session 1:Milton Friedman Revisited


Chairman:Michael Bordo, Rutgers University and NBER


8:30 am†††††††††††† William Poole, Robert Rasche and

David Wheelock, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

The Great Inflation: Did The Shadow Know Better?


Discussant:Christina Romer, UC, Berkeley and NBER


9:30 am†††††††††††† Andreas Beyer and Otmar Issing, European Central Bank

Vitor Gaspar, Bureau of European Policy Advisers

Christina Gerberding, Deutsche Bundesbank

Opting Out of the Great Inflation:

German Monetary Policy after the Break Down of Bretton Woods


Discussant:Benjamin Friedman, Harvard University and NBER


10:30 am†††††††††† Coffee Break


Session 2:Non Monetary Elements


Chairman:Athanasios Orphanides, Central Bank of Cyprus


10:45 am†††††††††† Alan Blinder, Princeton University and NBER

Jeremy Rudd, Federal Reserve Board

The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited


Discussant:Olivier Blanchard, MIT and NBER


11:45 am†††††††††† Christopher Sims, Princeton University and NBER

Stepping on a Rake:The Role of Fiscal Policy in the Inflation of the 1970ís


Discussant:Michael Woodford, Columbia University and NBER


12:45 pm†††††††††† Lunch


Session 3:Time Inconsistency and Central Bank Independence


Chairman:David Blanchflower, Dartmouth College and NBER††


2:00 pm†††††††††††† Alex Cukierman, Tel Aviv University

Misperceptions about the Frequency of Price Adjustments and Asymmetric Fedís Preferences Ė

An Assessment of their Impact on Inflation and Monetary Policy Under Burns and Miller


Discussant:Gregory Hess, Claremont McKenna College


3:00 pm†††††††††††† Takatoshi Ito, University of Tokyo and NBER

Great Inflation and Central Bank Independence in Japan


Discussant:Frederic Mishkin, Columbia University and NBER


4:00 pm†††††††††††† Coffee Break


Session 4:The Role of a Nominal Anchor


Chairman:David Wheelock, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


4:15 pm†††††††††††† Marvin Goodfriend, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER

Robert King, Boston University and NBER

The Great Inflation Drift


Discussant:Lars Svensson, Sveriges Riksbank and NBER


5:15 pm†††††††††††† Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board

John Taylor, Stanford University and NBER

Falling Behind the Curve:A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation


Discussant:Bennett McCallum, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER


6:15 pm†††††††††††† Adjourn


7:30 pm†††††††††††† Reception and Dinner†††


Saturday, September 27:


7:45 am†††††††††††† Continental Breakfast


Session 5:International Perspectives


Chairman:Harold James, Princeton University


8:15 am†††††††††††† Riccardo DiCecio and

Edward Nelson, Federal Reserve Bank ofSt.Louis

The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom:

Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes


Discussant:Matthew Shapiro, University of Michigan and NBER


9:15 am†††††††††††† Michael Bordo, Rutgers University and NBER

Barry Eichengreen, UC, Berkeley and NBER

Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation


Discussant:Allan Meltzer, Carnegie Mellon University


10:15 am†††††††††† Coffee Break


Session 6:Learning Expectations and Policy Mistakes


Chairman:Douglas Irwin, Dartmouth College and NBER††


10:30 am†††††††††† Athanasios Orphanides, Central Bank of Cyprus

John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations


Discussant:Seppo Honkapohja, Bank of Finland


11:30 am†††††††††† Coffee Break


11:45 am ††††††††† Panel Session II:Lessons from History


Chairman:Allan Meltzer, Carnegie Mellon University


Panelists:Harold James, Princeton University

Donald Kohn, Federal Reserve Board

†††††† †††††††††††††††† Lucas Papademos, European Central Bank

Anna Schwartz, NBER


1:00 pm†††††††††††† Lunch and Adjourn


2:30 pm†††††††††††† Optional Leaf Peeping