NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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The NBER Reporter 2018 Number 4: Program and Working Group Meetings



Economic Fluctuations and Growth
Market Design
Public Economics
Political Economy
International Finance and Macroeconomics
Economics of Education
Behavioral Finance
Monetary Economics


Labor Studies
Organizational Economics
Corporate Finance
Asset Pricing
Development Economics
International Trade and Investment
Health Care
Entrepreneurship

Economic Fluctuations and Growth

Members of the NBER's Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program met October 19 in New York City. Research Associates Raquel Fernández of New York University and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé of Columbia University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Chris Edmond, University of Melbourne; Virgiliu Midrigan, New York University and NBER; and Daniel Xu, Duke University and NBER, "How Costly Are Markups?" (NBER Working Paper No. 24800)
    David Baqaee, London School of Economics, and Emmanuel Farhi, Harvard University and NBER, "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium" (NBER Working Paper No. 24007)
    Bill Dupor, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; M. Saif Mehkari, University of Richmond; Rong Li, Renmin University of China; and Yi-Chan Tsai, National Taiwan University, "The 2008 U.S. Auto Market Collapse"
    Martin S. Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo, Northwestern University and NBER; and Arlene Wong, Princeton University and NBER, "State Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: The Refinancing Channel" (NBER Working Paper No. 25152)
    Ernest Liu, Princeton University; Atif R. Mian, Princeton University and NBER; and Amir Sufi, University of Chicago and NBER, "Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth"
    Simon Jäger, MIT and NBER; Benjamin Schoeferv, University of California, Berkeley; Samuel G. Young, MIT; and Josef Zweimüller, University of Zurich, "Wages and the Value of Nonemployment" (NBER Working Paper No. 25230)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/EFGf18/summary.html

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Market Design

Members of the NBER's Market Design Working Group met at Stanford University on October 19–20. Research Associates Michael Ostrovsky of Stanford and Parag A. Pathak of MIT organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Mohammad Akbarpour and Negar Matoorian, Stanford University, and Farshad Fatemi, Sharif University of Technology, "A Monetary Market for Kidneys"
    Alvin E. Roth, Stanford University and NBER, "Recent Developments in Kidney Exchange: Market Design in a Large World"
    Piotr Dworczak, Northwestern University; Scott Duke Kominers, Harvard University; and Mohammad Akbarpour, Stanford University, "Redistribution through Markets"
    Yeon-Koo Che, Columbia University, and Olivier Tercieux, Paris School of Economics, "Top Trading Cycles in Prioritized Matching: An Irrelevance of Priorities in Large Markets"
    Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Duke University and NBER; Yeon-Koo Che, Columbia University; Parag A. Pathak; Alvin E. Roth; and Olivier Tercieux, Paris School of Economics, "Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp" (NBER Working Paper No. 23265)
    Hongyao Ma and David Parkes, Harvard University, and Fei Fang, Carnegie Mellon University, "Spatio-Temporal Pricing for Ridesharing Platforms"
    Atila Abdulkadiroglu; Joshua Angrist, MIT and NBER; Yusuke Narita, Yale University; and Parag A. Pathak, "Impact Evaluation in Matching Markets with General Tie-Breaking" (NBER Working Paper No. 24172)
    Surender Baswana, India Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur; Partha Pratim Chakrabarti, IIT Kharagpur; Sharat Chandran, IIT Bombay; and Yash Kanoria and Utkarsh Patange, Columbia University, "Centralized Admissions for Engineering Colleges in India"
    Dirk Bergemann, Yale University; Benjamin A. Brooks, University of Chicago; and Stephen Morris, Princeton University, "Revenue Guarantee Equivalence"
    Onur Kesten, Carnegie Mellon University, and Selcuk Ozyurt, Sabanci University, "Efficient and Incentive Compatible Mediation: An Ordinal Market Design Approach"
    Yuichiro Kamada, Harvard University, and Fuhito Kojima, Stanford University, "Fair Matching under Con-straints: Theory and Applications"
    Tamas Fleiner, Budapest University of Technology and Economics; Ravi Jagadeesan, Harvard University; Zsuzsanna Jankó, Corvinus University; and Alexander Teytelboym, University of Oxford, "Trading Networks with Frictions"
    Xiao Liu, Tsinghua University; Zhixi Wan, Didi Chuxing Technology Co.; and Chenyu Yang, University of Rochester, "The Efficiency of A Dynamic Decentralized Two-Sided Matching Market"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/MDf18/summary.html

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Public Economics

Members of the NBER's Public Economics Program met in Cambridge on October 25–26. Program Director Amy Finkelstein of MIT and Research Associate Henrik Kleven of Princeton University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Henrik Kleven, "Taxation and Labor Force Participation: The EITC Reconsidered"
    Itzik Fadlon, University of California, San Diego and NBER; Shanthi P. Ramnath, U.S. Department of the Treasury; and Patricia Tong, RAND Corporation, "Household Responses to Transfers and Liquidity: Evidence from Social Security's Survivors Benefits"
    Manasi Deshpande, University of Chicago and NBER; Tal Gross, Boston University and NBER; and Yalun Su, University of Chicago, "Disability and Distress: The Effect of Disability Programs on Financial Outcomes"
    Susan Athey, Stanford University and NBER; Zakary Campbell, Brown University; Eric Chyn, University of Virginia; Justine S. Hastings, Brown University and NBER; and Preston S. White, Rhode Island Innovation Policy Lab, "The Social Value of Targeting Interventions: Evidence from Reemployment Services"
    Thomas R. Tørsløv and Ludvig S. Wier, University of Copenhagen, and Gabriel Zucman, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, "The Missing Profits of Nations" (NBER Working Paper No. 24701)
    Jesse M. Shapiro, Brown University and NBER; Justine S. Hastings, Brown University and NBER; and Ryan E. Kessler, Brown University, "The Effect of SNAP on the Composition of Purchased Foods: Evidence and Implications"
    Giulia Giupponi and Camille Landais, London School of Economics, "Subsidizing Labor Hoarding in Recessions: Employment & Welfare Effects of Short-Time Work"
    Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University and NBER; John N. Friedman, Brown University and NBER; and Maggie R. Jones and Sonya Porter, U.S. Bureau of the Census, "The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility" (NBER Working Paper No. 25147)
    Qiping Xu, University of Notre Dame, and Eric Zwick, University of Chicago and NBER, "Kinky Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior"
    Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, Duke University and NBER, "Unintended Consequences of Eliminating Tax Havens" (NBER Working Paper No. 24850)
    Peter Ganong, University of Chicago and NBER, and Pascal J. Noel, University of Chicago, "Liquidity vs. Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession" (NBER Working Paper No. 24964)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/PEf18/summary.html

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Political Economy

Members of the NBER's Political Economy Program met in Cambridge on October 26. Program Director Alberto F. Alesina of Harvard University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Stefano Gagliarducci, University of Rome Tor Vergata; M. Daniele Paserman, Boston University and NBER; and Eleonora Patacchini, Cornell University, "Hurricanes, Climate Change, and Political Accountability"
    Ernesto Dal Bó and Frederico Finan, University of California, Berkeley and NBER; Olle Folke, SIPA, Columbia University; Torsten Persson, Institute for International Economic Studies and NBER; and Johanna Rickne, Swedish Institute for Social Research, "Economic Losers and Political Winners: Sweden's Radical Right"
    Gianmarco Daniele, Bocconi University; Emilie Sartre, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics; and Paul Vertier, Sciences Po, "Toxic Loans and the Entry of Extreme Candidates"
    Oded Galor, Brown University and NBER, and Viacheslav Savitskiy, Brown University, "Climatic Roots of Loss Aversion"
    David Y. Yang, Harvard University, and Yuyu Chen, Peking University, "Historical Traumas and the Roots of Political Distrust: Political Inference from the Great Chinese Famine"
    Alberto F. Alesina and Stefanie Stantcheva, Harvard University and NBER; and Armando Miano, Harvard University, "Immigration and Redistribution" (NBER Working Paper No. 24733)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/POLf18/summary.html

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International Finance and Macroeconomics

Members of the NBER's International Finance and Macroeconomics Program met in Cambridge October 26. Research Associates Guido Lorenzoni of Northwestern University and Vivian Yue of Emory University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Andres Drenik, Columbia University; Rishabh Kirpalani, Pennsylvania State University; and Diego Perez, New York University, "Currency Choice in Contracts"
    George A. Alessandria, University of Rochester and NBER, and Carter B. Mix, University of Rochester, "The Global Trade Slowdown: Trade and Growth, Cause and Effect"
    Anusha Chari, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and NBER; Ryan Leary, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; and Toan Phan, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, "The Transmission of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico"
    Pablo Sebastián Fanelli, Princeton University, CEMFI, "Monetary Policy, Capital Controls, and International Portfolios"
    Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, University of California, Berkeley and NBER; Philippe Martin, Sciences Po; and Todd E. Messer, University of California, Berkeley, "The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis"
    Graciela L. Kaminsky, George Washington University and NBER, "The Center and the Periphery: Two Hundred Years of International Borrowing Cycles" (NBER Working Paper No. 23975)
    Cristina Arellano, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and NBER; Yan Bai, University of Rochester and NBER; and Gabriel P. Mihalache, Stony Brook University, "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/IFMf18/summary.html

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Economics of Education

Members of the NBER's Economics of Education Program met in Cambridge on November 1–2. Program Director Caroline M. Hoxby of Stanford University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    David J. Deming, Harvard University and NBER, and Kadeem L. Noray, Harvard University, "STEM Careers and Technological Change" (NBER Working Paper No. 25065)
    Michael Gilraine, New York University, and Robert McMillan, University of Toronto and NBER, "Enrollment Manipulation, Class Size Caps, and Educational Segregation"
    Meredith Phillips, University of California, Los Angeles, and Sarah J. Reber, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, "When 'Low Touch' is Not Enough: Evidence from a Random Assignment College Access Field Experiment"
    Matthew D. Baird and Jennie Wenger, RAND Corporation; Mike Kofoed, United States Military Academy; and Trey Miller, American Institutes for Research, "For-Profit Higher Education Responsiveness to Price Shocks: An Investigation of Changes in Post 9-11 GI Bill Allowed Maximum Tuitions"
    Adam Lavecchia, University of Ottawa; Philip Oreopoulos, University of Toronto and NBER; and Robert S. Brown, Toronto District School Board, "Long-run Effects from Comprehensive Student Support: Evidence from Pathways to Education"
    Felipe Barrera-Osorio and Andreas de Barros, Harvard University, and Deon Filmer, World Bank, "Long-Term Impacts of Alternative Approaches to Increase Schooling: Experimental Evidence from a Scholarship Program in Cambodia"
    Sam E. Asher, World Bank; Paul Novosad, Dartmouth College; and Charlie Rafkin, MIT, "Getting Signal from Interval Data: Theory and Applications to Mortality and Intergenerational Mobility"
    Susan Dynarski, University of Michigan and NBER; Carmello Libassi and Stephanie Owen, University of Michigan; and Katherine Michelmore, Syracuse University, "Closing the Gap: The Effect of a Targeted, Tuition-Free Promise on College Choices of High-Achieving, Low-Income Students"
    James Berry, University of Delaware, and Priya Mukherjee, College of William and Mary, "Pricing Private Education in Urban India: Demand, Use, and Impact"
    Andrew C. Johnston, University of California, Merced, "Teacher Utility, Separating Equilibria, and Optimal Compensation: Evidence from a Discrete-Choice Experiment"
    Desmond Ang, Harvard University, "The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students"
    Eric Nielsen, Federal Reserve Board, "Test Items, Outcomes, and Achievement Gaps"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/EDf18/summary.html

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Behavioral Finance

Members of the NBER's Behavioral Finance Working Group met in Cambridge November 2. Research Associate Nicholas C. Barberis of Yale University organized the meeting, which was supported by Bracebridge Capital and Fuller and Thaler Asset Management. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Cary Frydman, University of Southern California, and Lawrence J. Jin, California Institute of Technology, "Efficient Coding and Risky Choice"
    Huseyin Gulen, Purdue University; Mihai Ion, University of Arizona; and Stefano Rossi, Bocconi University, "Credit Cycles and Corporate Investment"
    Alexander M. Chinco, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, "The Madness Of Crowds And The Likelihood Of Bubbles"
    Manuel Adelino, Duke University and NBER; Antoinette Schoar, MIT and NBER; and Felipe Severino, Dartmouth College, "Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership" (NBER Working Paper No. 25090)
    Carolin Pflueger, University of British Columbia and NBER; Emil Siriwardane, Harvard University; and Adi Sunderam, Harvard University and NBER, "A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy" (NBER Working Paper No. 24529)
    Shimon Kogan, MIT; Tobias J. Moskowitz, Yale University and NBER; and Marina Niessner, AQR Capital Management, "Fake News: Evidence from Financial Markets"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/BFf18/summary.html

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Monetary Economics

Members of the NBER's Monetary Economics Program Meeting met in Cambridge November 2. Faculty Research Fellow Gabriel Chodorow-Reich of Harvard University and Research Associate Simon Gilchrist of New York University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    George-Marios Angeletos, MIT and NBER, and Zhen Huo, Yale University, "Myopia and Anchoring" (NBER Working Paper No. 24545)
    Ben S. Bernanke, Brookings Institution, "The Real Effects of the Financial Crisis"
    Atif R. Mian, Princeton University and NBER, and Amir Sufi, University of Chicago and NBER, "Credit Supply and Housing Speculation" (NBER Working Paper No. 24823)
    Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin and NBER; Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley and NBER; and Tiziano Ropele, Bank of Italy, "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence"
    David W. Berger and Konstantin Milbradt, Northwestern University and NBER; Fabrice Tourre, Copenhagen Business School; and Joseph S. Vavra, University of Chicago and NBER, "Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy" (NBER Working Paper No. 25157)
    Francesco D'Acunto, Boston College; Daniel Hoang, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Maritta Paloviita, Bank of Finland; and Michael Weber, University of Chicago and NBER, "Human Frictions to the Transmission of Economic Policy"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/MEf18/summary.html

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Labor Studies

Members of the NBER's Labor Studies Program met in Chicago November 9. Program Co-Directors David Autor of MIT and Alexandre Mas of Princeton University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Stephane Bonhomme, Kerstin Holzheu, and Bradley J. Setzler, University of Chicago; Thibaut Lamadon and Magne Mogstad, University of Chicago and NBER; and Elena Manresa, MIT, "How Much Should We Trust Estimates of Firm Effects and Worker Sorting?"
    John A. List and Magne Mogstad, University of Chicago and NBER, "Demand for Leisure and Flexible Work Arrangements"
    Janna Johnson, University of Minnesota, and Morris M. Kleiner, University of Minnesota and NBER, "Is Occupational Licensing a Barrier to Interstate Migration?" (NBER Working Paper No. 24107)
    Zoë B. Cullen, Harvard University, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, "How Much Does Your Boss Make? The Effects of Salary Comparisons"
    Emily Breza, Harvard University and NBER; Supreet Kaur, University of California, Berkeley and NBER; and Nandita Krishnaswamy, University of Southern California, "Scabs: The Social Suppression of Labor Supply"
    John Conlon, Harvard University; Laura Pilossoph, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Matthew J. Wiswall, University of Wisconsin-Madison and NBER; and Basit Zafar, Arizona State University and NBER, "Labor Market Search With Imperfect Information and Learning" (NBER Working Paper No. 24988)
    Kirill Borusyak, Princeton University; Peter Hull, University of Chicago and NBER; and Xavier Jaravel, London School of Economics, "Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs" (NBER Working Paper No. 24997)
    Benjamin G. Hyman, University of Chicago, "Can Displaced Labor Be Retrained? Evidence from Quasi-Random Assignment to Trade Adjustment Assistance"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/LSf18/summary.html

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Organizational Economics

Members of the NBER's Organizational Economics Working Group met in Cambridge on November 16–17. Research Associate Robert S. Gibbons of MIT organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Anna Gumpert, LMU Munich; Henrike Steimer, Stanford University; and Manfred Antoni, Institute of Employment Research, "Firm Organization with Multiple Establishments"
    Samuel Hafner, University of Basel, and Curtis Taylor, Duke University, "Contracting for Research: Moral Haz-ard and the Incentive to Overstate Significance"
    Raphael Boleslavsky and Kyungmin Kim, University of Miami, "Bayesian Persuasion and Moral Hazard"
    Jin Li, London School of Economics; Michael L. Powell, Northwestern University; and Rongzhu Ke, Hong Kong Baptist University, "Firm Growth and Promotion Opportunities"
    Mitra Akhtari, Harvard University; Diana B. Moreira, University of California, Davis; and Laura C. Trucco, Harvard University, "Political Turnover, Bureaucratic Turnover, and the Quality of Public Services"
    Anton Kolotilin, University of New South Wales, and Andriy Zapechelnyuk, University of St. Andrews, "Persuasion Meets Delegation"
    Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, MIT and NBER; Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Stanford University and NBER; and Matthew Jackson, Stanford University, "Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Exposure to Formal Credit Markets"
    Yanhui Wu, University of Southern California, and Feng Zhu, Harvard University, "Competition, Contracts, and Worker Efforts in Creative Production"
    Charles Angelucci, Columbia University; Simone Meraglia, University of Exeter; and Nico Voigtländer, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, "How Merchant Towns Shaped Parliaments: From the Norman Conquest of England to the Great Reform Act" (NBER Working Paper No. 23606)
    Jason Sandvik and Nathan Seegert, University of Utah; Richard Saouma, Michigan State University; and Christopher T. Stanton, Harvard University and NBER, "The Power (of) Lunch and the Role of Incentives for Fostering Productive Interactions"
    Daron Acemoglu, MIT and NBER, and Alexander Wolitzky, MIT, "A Theory of Equality before the Law" (NBER Working Paper No. 24681)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/OEf18/summary.html

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Corporate Finance

Members of the NBER's Corporate Finance Program met in Cambridge November 16. Research Associates David Sraer of University of California, Berkeley and Philip Strahan of Boston College organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Anil K. Kashyap, University of Chicago and NBER; Natalia Kovrijnykh, Arizona State University; Jian Li, University of Chicago; and Anna Pavlova, London Business School, "The Benchmark Inclusion Subsidy"
    Stephan Luck, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Sergio A. Correia and Mark Carlson, Federal Reserve Board, "The Effects of Banking Competition on Growth and Financial Stability: Evidence from the National Banking Era"
    Pengjie Gao, University of Notre Dame, and Chang Joo Lee and Dermot Murphy, University of Illinois at Chicago, "Financing Dies in Darkness? The Impact of Newspaper Closures on Public Finance"
    Brian Boyer, Taylor D. Nadauld, and Keith Vorkink, Brigham Young University, and Michael S. Weisbach, Ohio State University and NBER, "Private Equity Indices Based on Secondary Market Transactions" (NBER Working Paper No. 25207)
    Tania Babina, Columbia University, and Sabrina T. Howell, New York University and NBER, "Entrepreneurial Spillovers from Corporate R&D"
    Daniel Paravisini and Juanita Gonzalez-Uribe, London School of Economics, "How Sensitive is Young Firm Investment to the Cost of Outside Equity? Evidence from a UK Tax Relief"
    João Granja, University of Chicago, and Christian Leuz and Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago and NBER, "Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles" (NBER Working Paper No. 25196)
    Matthew Baron, Cornell University; Emil Verner, MIT; and Wei Xiong, Princeton University and NBER, "Bank Equity and Banking Crises"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/CFf18/summary.html

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Asset Pricing

Members of the NBER's on Asset Pricing Program met at Stanford University November 30. Research Associates Tano Santos and Harrison Hong, both of Columbia University, organized the meeting, which was sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Yaron Levi, University of Southern California, and Ivo Welch, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, "Market-Beta and Downside Risk"
    Michael Sockin, University of Texas at Austin, and Wei Xiong, Princeton University and NBER, "A Model of Cryptocurrencies"
    Valentin Haddad, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER; Paul Ho, Princeton University; and Erik Loualiche, University of Minnesota, "Efficient Bubbles?"
    Zhengyang Jiang, Northwestern University, and Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, Stanford University and NBER, "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate" (NBER Working Paper No. 24439)
    Martin Lettau, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, and Markus Pelger, Stanford University, "Factors that Fit the Time Series and Cross-Section of Stock Returns" (NBER Working Paper No. 24858)
    Cecilia Parlatore, New York University, and Eduardo Dávila, New York University and NBER, "Volatility and Informativeness"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/APf18/summary.html

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Development Economics

Members of the NBER's Development Economics Program met in Cambridge on November 30-December 1. The meeting was organized by Research Associates Esther Duflo of MIT, Joseph P. Kaboski of University of Notre Dame, Jeremy Magruder of University of California, Berkeley, Mark Rosenzweig of Yale University, Christopher Woodruff of University of Oxford and Program Director Duncan Thomas of Duke University. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Nicholas Ryan, Yale University and NBER, "Contract Enforcement and Productive Efficiency: Evidence from the Bidding and Renegotiation of Power Contracts in India"
    Gautam Rao and Michael Kremer, Harvard University and NBER, and Kevin Carney and Xinyue Lin, Harvard University, "The Endowment Effect and Collateralized Loans"
    Daniel Bjorkegren, Brown University, "Competition in Network Industries: Evidence from Mobile Telecommunications in Rwanda"
    Paul Carrillo, George Washington University; Dave Donaldson, MIT and NBER; Dina Pomeranz, University of Zurich; and Monica Singhal, University of California, Davis and NBER, "The Bigger the Better? Using Lotteries to Identify the Allocative Efficiency Effects of Firm Size"
    Maria Micaela Sviatschi, Princeton University, "Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths"
    Gabriel Kreindler, University of Chicago, "The Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing: Experimental Evidence and Equilibrium Implications"
    Matteo Bobba, Toulouse School of Economics, and Luca Flabbi, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, "Labor Market Search, Informality, and Schooling Investments"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/DEVf18/summary.html

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International Trade and Investment

Members of the NBER's International Trade and Investment Program met in Cambridge on December 7–8. Program Director Stephen J. Redding of Princeton University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Alberto Cavallo, Harvard University and NBER; Robert C. Feenstra, University of California, Davis and NBER; and Robert Inklaar, University of Groningen, "Foreign and Domestic Trade Costs, Product Variety, and the Standard of Living Across Countries"
    Rodrigo Adão, University of Chicago and NBER; Michal Kolesar, Princeton University; and Eduardo Morales, Princeton University and NBER, "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference" (NBER Working Paper No. 24944)
    Yuhei Miyauchi, Stanford University, "Matching and Agglomeration: Theory and Evidence from Japanese Firm-to-Firm Trade"
    Zhen Huo, Yale University; Andrei A. Levchenko, University of Michigan and NBER; and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, University of Texas at Austin, " The Global Business Cycle: Measurement and Transmission"
    Dominick G. Bartelme, University of Michigan; Arnaud Costinot and Dave Donaldson, MIT and NBER; and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, "External Economies of Scale and Industrial Policy: A View from Trade"
    Jeronimo Carballo, University of Colorado; Kyle Handley, University of Michigan; and Nuno Limão, University of Maryland and NBER, "Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements" (NBER Working Paper No. 24368)
    Pablo Fajgelbaum, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER; Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Yale University and NBER; Patrick Kennedy, University of California, Berkeley; and Amit Khandelwal, Columbia University and NBER, "The Return to Protectionism: Causes and Consequences of the 2018 Trade War"
    Levent Celik, Higher School of Economics, Moscow; Bilgehan Karabay, RMIT University; and John McLaren, University of Virginia and NBER, "Fast-Track Authority: A Hold-Up Interpretation" (NBER Working Paper No. 24427)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/ITIf18/summary.html

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Health Care

Members of the NBER's Health Care Program met in Cambridge December 7. Program Director Jonathan Gruber of MIT organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Sebastián Fleitas, University of Leuven; Gautam Gowrisankaran, University of Arizona and NBER; and Anthony T. Lo Sasso, University of Illinois at Chicago, "Reclassification Risk in the Small Group Health Insurance Market" (NBER Working Paper No. 24663)
    Amanda E. Kowalski, University of Michigan and NBER, "Behavior within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines" (NBER Working Paper No. 25049)
    Maria Polyakova, Stanford University and NBER, and Stephen P. Ryan, Washington University in St. Louis and NBER, "In-kind Transfers, Tagging, and Market Power: Evidence from the ACA"
    Manasi Deshpande, University of Chicago and NBER; Tal Gross, Boston University and NBER; and Yalun Su, University of Chicago, "Disability and Distress: The Effect of Disability Programs on Financial Outcomes"
    Michael Geruso, University of Texas at Austin and NBER; Timothy Layton and Mark Shepard, Harvard University and NBER; and Grace McCormack, Harvard University, "Trade-offs between Extensive and Intensive Margin Selection in Competitive Insurance Markets"
    Martin B. Hackmann, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, and Vincent Pohl, University of Georgia, "Patient vs. Provider Incentives in Long Term Care" (NBER Working Paper No. 25178)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/HCf18/summary.html

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Entrepreneurship

Members of the NBER's Entrepreneurship Working Group met in Cambridge December 7. Research Associates Josh Ler-ner of Harvard University and David T. Robinson of Duke University organized the meeting, which was sponsored by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Bilal Zia, World Bank, and Patricio Dalton, Julius Rüschenpöhler, and Burak Uras, Tilburg University, "Learning Business Practices from Peers: Experimental Evidence from Small-scale Retailers in an Emerging Market"
    Robert W. Fairlie, University of California, Santa Cruz and NBER, and Javier Miranda and Nikolas Zolas, U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Job Creation and Survival among Entrepreneurs: Evidence from the Universe of U.S. Startups"
    Jesse Davis and Xinxin Wang, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and Adair Morse, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, "The Leveraging of Silicon Valley"
    Steven Nafziger, Williams College, and Amanda G. Gregg, Middlebury College, "The Births, Lives, and Deaths of Corporations in Late Imperial Russia"
    Yael Hochberg, Rice University and NBER; John M. Barrios, University of Chicago; and Livia Hanyi Yi, Rice University, "The Cost of Convenience: Ridesharing and Traffic Fatalities"
    Christopher Geczy and David Musto, University of Pennsylvania; Jessica Jeffers, University of Chicago; and Anne M. Tucker, Georgia State University, "Contracts with Benefits: The Implementation of Impact Investing"
    Kevin Boudreau, Northeastern University and NBER, "Amateurs"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/ENTf18/summary.html

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